If we simply apply the engineering method to nuclear
power plants in the same way that it is applied to airplanes, then we would find that we must build no more N-Plants. This is mainly because of the risk calculations. Risk is defined as “the probability of something bad happening,” and is always between 1 and 0. The two numbers required to do these calculations are the down side of the risk and the numerical risk. For N-plants these numbers are very difficult or impossible to determine.
The down side of the risk is the total cost of the worst case scenario. Let’s say an N-Plant in or near a big city goes Chernobyl. The cost must include the cost of building a new plant, the cost of land that will be unusable for at least hundreds of years, the cost of insurance payments to all those injured or killed as well as their medical expenses and replacement wages and more. It is difficult to determine the cost of extra cancers caused around the world but this must be added in, (Go to epidemiology). If the cause of the accident can be found then we must add in the cost of fixing this defect in all other power plants. I’ve probably forgotten something here, but you get the idea. I asked a real-estate guy how much it would cost to lease the city of LA for 500 years but he choked instead of answering.
Now, there are other lines of thought: What if the ocean level comes up due to Global Warming? What would be the effect on all the N-Plants in the world? What would be the cleanup cost? It is obvious that the costs begin to exceed the global GDP. In real engineering all these calculations are done. In aeronautical engineering all these things and more must be taken into consideration before the plane is allowed to fly: but they still crash sometimes.
I did metallurgy on parts for nuclear power plants and as a result of that experience, I don’t want to live on the same continent with one N-Plant.
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