Help help: Poker Probability Help

This post left anonymously

Poker Probability Help

You have Kc Kd, and $1300 in front of you. You raise to $50, and your opponent in the small blind, who also had $1300 when the hand began, re-raises to $300. You believe she has either QQ, AK, or AA. The flop comes Jc Ts 3d, and your opponent goes all-in for $1000. Based on her all-in bet, you now believe that she has either QQ or AA, and suppose that you believe that she is equally likely to have either of these two pairs.

a) If she has QQ, what is your probability of winning the hand?

b) If she has AA, what is your probability of winning the hand?

c) Should you call? (Let X = the number of chips you will have after the hand. Calculate the expected value of X if you call, and compare with the expected value of X if you fold.)

I’ve been trying to solve this problem but with no luck. So far I’ve listed
(K,9),(8,9),(Q,2-10),(Q,Q) as cards that your opponent could use to win. Now I have no idea how to proceed from here.

This open post was written 3 weeks, 2 days ago | V/U/S: 78, 6, 2 | Edit Post | Leave a reply | Report Post

Reciprocity (0)

Since writing this post Anonymous may have helped people, but has not within the last 4 days.

Post Tags (6)

Poker, probability, Help, Odds, expected, value (How Tags Affect Reciprocity)

Replies (6)

Where were you?

Click and drag to move the map around. FAQ: How we place people on this map »
You can also watch events on Help.com as they happen

Mouse over the map for 2 seconds to see an expanded, interactive view

Anonymous edited this post 3 weeks, 2 days ago. Read the previous text »

4) You have Kc Kd, and $1300 in front of you. You raise to $50, and your opponent in the small blind, who also had $1300 when the hand began, re-raises to $300. You believe she has either QQ, AK, or AA. The flop comes Jc Ts 3d, and your opponent goes all-in for $1000. Based on her all-in bet, you now believe that she has either QQ or AA, and suppose that you believe that she is equally likely to have either of these two pairs.

a) If she has QQ, what is your probability of winning the hand?

b) If she has AA, what is your probability of winning the hand?

c) Should you call? (Let X = the number of chips you will have after the hand. Calculate the expected value of X if you call, and compare with the expected value of X if you fold.)

I’ve been trying to solve this problem but with no luck. So far I’ve listed
(K,9),(8,9),(Q,2-10),(Q,Q) as cards that your opponent could use to win. Now I have no idea how to proceed from here.

Anonymous edited this post 3 weeks, 2 days ago. Read the previous text »

Poker Probability Help

4) You have Kc Kd, and $1300 in front of you. You raise to $50, and your opponent in the small blind, who also had $1300 when the hand began, re-raises to $300. You believe she has either QQ, AK, or AA. The flop comes Jc Ts 3d, and your opponent goes all-in for $1000. Based on her all-in bet, you now believe that she has either QQ or AA, and suppose that you believe that she is equally likely to have either of these two pairs.

a) If she has QQ, what is your probability of winning the hand?

b) If she has AA, what is your probability of winning the hand?

c) Should you call? (Let X = the number of chips you will have after the hand. Calculate the expected value of X if you call, and compare with the expected value of X if you fold.)

I’ve been trying to solve this problem but with no luck. So far I’ve listed
(K,9),(8,9),(Q,2-10),(Q,Q) as cards that your opponent could use to win. Now I have no idea how to proceed from here.

Anonymous changed the tags on this post: they were "Poker, probability, Help" 3 weeks, 2 days ago.

Raven78 0 #
An Unknown Location | 3 weeks, 2 days ago (1 hour, 59 minutes after post)

Given that the player is putting such a large amount, i would suggest they have pocket aces. No one with any sense puts that amount on unless they know they have an unbeatable hand.
If she has QQ you would beat her as you have KK.
AA is unbeatable.
And given the amount, no it isn’t worth it!

Avi C 11 #
An Unknown Location | 3 weeks, 2 days ago (2 hours, 1 minute after post)

AA is not unbeatable. Winning would depend on what cards turn up on the turn and river

Help me with: Species Conservation

Avi C 11 #
An Unknown Location | 3 weeks, 2 days ago (4 hours, 18 minutes after post)

4) You have Kc Kd, and $1300 in front of you. You raise to $50, and your opponent in the small blind, who also had $1300 when the hand began, re-raises to $300. You believe she has either QQ, AK, or AA. The flop comes Jc Ts 3d, and your opponent goes all-in for $1000. Based on her all-in bet, you now believe that she has either QQ or AA, and suppose that you believe that she is equally likely to have either of these two pairs.
a) If she has QQ, what is your probability of winning the hand?
Winning Hands (for opponent)
Hands (K,9),(8,9),(Q,2),(Q,4-8),(QQ),(Q,J),(A,K),(Q,3),(Q,10)
No. of Hands 2*4 4*4 2*4 2*4*5 1 4*3 4*2 2*3 2*3
Total = 99. Therefore P(Win)=1-(99/(45 choose 2))=1-(99/990)=.9
b) If she has AA, what is your probability of winning the hand?
Winning Hands (for you)
Hands (K,2),(K,3),(K,4-9),(K,10),(K,J),(A,Q),(Q,9),(K,K)
No. of Hands 2*4 2*3 2*6*4 2*3 2*3 2*4 4*4 1
Total = 99. Therefore P(Win)= 99/(45 choose 2)=.1
c) Should you call? (Let X = the number of chips you will have after the hand. Calculate the expected value of X if you call, and compare with the expected value of X if you fold.)
Expected Value =X*.9-X*.1+X*.1-X*.9=0
You have nothing to lose, so you should call

Formatting is a bit messed up, sorry for that

Help me with: Species Conservation

Invite Others to Help

A logged in and verified Help.com member has the ability to setup a Friends List and invite others to help with posts.

Help help: Poker Probability Help - Help.com

Poker Probability Help

Reciprocity (0)

Post Tags (6)

Replies (6)

Invite Others to Help

Help.com Homepage